Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers Prediction
Agatha's pick
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers - 8:15 PM ETFinished with 2 receptions61%LOSTLEAN1ULOSTSEALED ODDS1.50
Agatha's NFL model lands on MarShawn Lloyd Under 1.5 receptions, 61%. The call asks a quieter night than the 1.9 catches a game he has been running. The counterweight: the Falcons allow about 21.6 catches a game, over the league's 20.3.Sealed Pick #1296 @ Sep 24, 8:00 PM ETFingerprint52f2d9c1ab4ae4b3ea9697731bd177ac472b88706b7c4bd2a4e90573e93399edTransaction9b8fbd4aa6610730d5f8140b6ccf462545e221d61ed43ebd5b572d1dd9e8e307Open key8bb78cf33a8e27c1f5339f96731d82f0c54474e6768ccc183463662d700e8909- Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers - 8:15 PM ETFinished with 3 receptions60%LOSTLEAN1ULOSTSEALED ODDS1.59
Agatha's NFL model makes it about 1.2 catches for Skyy Moore against a line of 1.5: the under is the call. He has been catching about 0.8 balls a game. The counterweight: the Falcons allow about 21.6 catches a game, over the league's 20.3.Sealed Pick #1297 @ Sep 24, 8:01 PM ETFingerprinta8b2be05640b812db9f1ddd867f6ba1b7ed56e44e988d10f0a52ba8cc3feeafdTransaction72522c31b7d265ef8f83cf8e1f9834c3f03698e984f18a7cddac905d5fba78cfOpen key8bb78cf33a8e27c1f5339f96731d82f0c54474e6768ccc183463662d700e8909 - Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers - 8:15 PM ETFinished with 4 receptions60%WONLEAN1UWONSEALED ODDS1.61
The model's number on Tucker Kraft is 3.4 catches; at a line of 4.5, that reads under. Kraft has been running about 3.5 catches a game. The counterweight: the Falcons allow about 21.6 catches a game, over the league's 20.3.Sealed Pick #1298 @ Sep 24, 8:01 PM ETFingerprint1bb85b1ce47abf210cbb19164e1298a087263ecbe192a213591d13ebbf5a14a0Transaction91eaf14870d85c174947587910d0c9ee9a14d1a78e526e35a61ecb061155e2c1Open key8bb78cf33a8e27c1f5339f96731d82f0c54474e6768ccc183463662d700e8909 - Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers - 8:15 PM ETFinished with 2 receptions60%LOSTLEAN1ULOSTSEALED ODDS1.55
Olamide Zaccheaus Under 1.5 receptions is the call. The call asks a quieter night than the 1.7 catches a game he has been running.Sealed Pick #1299 @ Sep 24, 8:01 PM ETFingerprint56e36dc2ecd266e6706115e229ca671ba2aa10a3c2aea69f6f14be83be67162fTransaction3e5daa273f617c026450d0a4b01c348b4b8c028ed4869b083b9f00e28ec218d9Open key8bb78cf33a8e27c1f5339f96731d82f0c54474e6768ccc183463662d700e8909 - Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers - 8:15 PM ETFinished with 1 receptions60%WONLEAN1UWONSEALED ODDS1.57Agatha leans Chris Brooks Under 1.5 receptions. His recent rate sits near 1.1 receptions a game. The counterweight: the Falcons allow about 21.6 catches a game, over the league's 20.3.Sealed Pick #1300 @ Sep 24, 8:01 PM ETFingerprint131556792f7f89b1ccba9f1276a7553113c727e7cc5bf3267a337e05ff89b4bfTransaction1e481e4de462982f3353a220007ea35632d66b1295e0ee0bc5f5e09625b3c7ffOpen key8bb78cf33a8e27c1f5339f96731d82f0c54474e6768ccc183463662d700e8909
- Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers - 8:15 PM ETAgatha projects ATL 19, GB 26Final: ATL 35 - GB 1469%LOSTLEAN1ULOSTSEALED ODDS1.44
This pick exists because of 2 points of daylight: Agatha reads the Green Bay Packers at 69% while the best price, at Paddy Power, charges for only about 68%. The Packers come in 3-7 across their last ten; the Falcons arrive 6-4.Sealed Pick #1301 @ Sep 24, 8:01 PM ETFingerprint809e63fe9d24970039ad51189dbb23a437e01d68ecc2d4b14f637f6b9c0e1d89Transaction3433e0c4281103fd3564a77e7ba18a5f65cc5bddabe97553d66e7aa0ae282374Open key8bb78cf33a8e27c1f5339f96731d82f0c54474e6768ccc183463662d700e8909
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Board refreshes every 2 minutesGame Center
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 7 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 35 |
| GB | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
ESPN live win probability: GB 0%
Play-by-play
- [4- 3:33] Official Timeout at 03:33.
- [4- 3:33] C.Levin and M.Jerrell reported in as eligible. Bi.Robinson left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. M.Penix pass to C.Blair is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
- [4- 3:35] Timeout #1 by GB at 03:35.
- [4- 3:39] Bi.Robinson up the middle to GB 2 for 2 yards (D.Wyatt).
- [4- 4:26] (Shotgun) Bi.Robinson left guard to GB 4 for 9 yards (J.Bullard; I.McDuffie).
- [4- 5:17] (Shotgun) M.Penix pass deep right to D.London to GB 13 for 40 yards (E.Williams).
- [4- 6:01] (Shotgun) Br.Robinson left end to ATL 47 for 2 yards (Z.Franklin; D.Dennis-Sutton).
- [4- 6:44] Bi.Robinson left guard to ATL 45 for 4 yards (J.Hargrave).
- [4- 7:28] Bi.Robinson left tackle to ATL 41 for 3 yards (B.Sorrell; E.Williams).
- [4- 8:11] Bi.Robinson right tackle to ATL 38 for 5 yards (K.Nixon; E.Williams).
- [4- 8:18] T.Smack kicks 62 yards from GB 35 to ATL 3. Br.Robinson to ATL 33 for 30 yards (C.Brooks).
Leaders
- Jordan Love (GB): 28/53, 312 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- MarShawn Lloyd (GB): 4 CAR, 11 YDS
- Matthew Golden (GB): 5 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- Michael Penix Jr. (ATL): 18/25, 256 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Bijan Robinson (ATL): 29 CAR, 194 YDS, 2 TD
- Drake London (ATL): 9 REC, 194 YDS
Game-day injuries
- Edgerrin Cooper (GB) - Questionable
- Anthony Campbell (GB) - Out
- Jayden Reed (GB) - Out
- Zach Bako-Bewele (GB) - Out
- Aaron Banks (GB) - Out
- Jack Strand (ATL) - Out
- Cooper Rush (ATL) - Out
- Robert Longerbeam (ATL) - Out
- Ethan Onianwa (ATL) - Out
- Malcolm DeWalt IV (ATL) - Out
Market (latest pregame line)
Spread (GB)
-4.5
Total
43
Moneyline
- ATL
- 2.85
- GB
- 1.44
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (15 snapshots)
- Moneyline (home): opened 1.31, now 1.40
- Moneyline (home): opened 1.31, now 1.42