Flyers vs Lightning Prediction
Monday, Oct 5, 2026, 7:00 PM ET, Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Agatha Research Desk, Updated
AGATHA'S PICK
AWAYPhiladelphiaFlyersAGATHA'S PICK
HOMETampa BayLightning
AWAYPhiladelphiaFlyersPREDICTED SCOREPREDICTED SETSMATCHUPLIVEDELAYEDFINALPOSTPONEDLIVE
0140vs
Predicted --
HOMETampa BayLightning60%WIN CHANCELIVE READLightning to WinWON#360 SEALEDSEALED ODDS -Agatha's pick: Lightning to WinTHE VERDICT
Win chance at the seal 60%
Final score: Lightning 4, Flyers 1
- SEALED ODDS
- -218BetOnline
- CLOSING ODDS
- Same as sealedat the start
- STAKE
- 1 unitflat, every pick
- RESULT
- WON +0.46uat the sealed price
- GRADED
- 9:51 PM ETreceipt #360
Game Center
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TBL | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
Play-by-play
- [3- 20:00] Game End
- [3- 20:00] End of 3rd Period
- [3- 19:53] Conor Geekie faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
- [3- 19:53] Brandon Hagel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (3)
- [3- 19:25] Tyson Foerster Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
- [3- 19:14] Porter Martone Snap Shot Wide Left
- [3- 18:58] Zemgus Girgensons faceoff won against Sean Couturier
- [3- 18:58] Icing
- [3- 18:29] Ilya Mikheyev shot blocked by Travis Sanheim
- [3- 18:29] Pontus Holmberg Snap Shot Wide Left
- [3- 18:25] Giveaway by Owen Tippett
- [3- 18:12] Owen Tippett Snap Shot Wide Right
Leaders
- Ilya Mikheyev (TB): 1
- Nikita Kucherov (TB): 2
- Ilya Mikheyev (TB): 2
- Tyson Foerster (PHI): 1
- Nick Seeler (PHI): 1
- Tyson Foerster (PHI): 1
Game-day injuries
- Emil Lilleberg (TB) - Out
- Yanni Gourde (TB) - Injured Reserve
- Dominic James (TB) - Injured Reserve
- Rasmus Ristolainen (PHI) - Out
- Nikita Grebenkin (PHI) - Injured Reserve
- Helge Grans (PHI) - Injured Reserve
PHITale of the tape
TBLFlyers vs Lightning recent form
PHI 0-5 Flyers: last 5 games
- L2-3CAR Oct 3 Carolina Hurricanes, 2-3
- L2-3NJD Oct 1 New Jersey Devils, 2-3
- L0-7PIT Sep 30 Pittsburgh Penguins, 0-7
- L2-3CAR May 9 Carolina Hurricanes, 2-3
- L1-4CAR May 7 Carolina Hurricanes, 1-4
TBL 2-3 Lightning: last 5 games
- W3-1WSH Oct 3 Washington Capitals, 3-1
- L1-5NYR Oct 1 New York Rangers, 1-5
- L1-2MTL May 3 Montreal Canadiens, 1-2
- W1-0MTL May 1 Montreal Canadiens, 1-0
- L2-3MTL Apr 29 Montreal Canadiens, 2-3
Goals scored, last 5PHI 7TBL 8
Goals allowed, last 5fewer is betterPHI 20TBL 11
Flyers vs Lightning head-to-head
Since Feb 27, 2024: Lightning 5, Flyers 3
- Jan 12, 2026Lightning 5-1
- Jan 10, 2026Lightning 7-2
- Nov 24, 2025Lightning 3-0
- Mar 17, 2025Lightning 2-0
- Mar 13, 2025Flyers 4-3
- Nov 7, 2024Flyers 2-1
- Mar 9, 2024Lightning 7-0
- Feb 27, 2024Flyers 6-2
Flyers vs Lightning line movement
Market (latest pregame line)
Spread (TBL)
-1.5
Total
5.5
Moneyline
- PHI
- +185
- TBL
- -225
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (24 snapshots)
- Moneyline (TBL) at FanDuel: opened -184, now -240
- Spread (TBL) at FanDuel: opened -1.5, now -1.5
- Total at FanDuel: opened 5.5, now 5.5
Agatha's pick for Flyers vs Lightning
The Lightning. Agatha gave Tampa Bay a 60% chance to win at Benchmark International Arena, Tampa. It was one of Agatha's Best NHL Bets for Oct 5.
TV: NHL Net