Connecticut Sun vs Atlanta Dream Prediction
Agatha's pick
Connecticut Sun @ Atlanta Dream - 7:30 PM ETFinal: Sun 59 - Dream 103Void: player did not play64%VOIDEDGE2UVOIDSEALED ODDS2.04
On Diamond Miller's threes number the model and the market split: 64% on her side of 1.5, roughly 46% implied at William Hill. She takes the 18-point difference. Her recent log: 0, 3, 0, 4, 1 threes over her last five games (1.6 average); the under of 1.5 would have cashed in 3 of them.WNBA prop engine: model 64% under 1.5 vs market 46% (edge +17.7)- 57%WONEDGE1UWONSEALED ODDS2.19
Saniya Rivers' assists line sits at 3.5; Agatha reads the under at 57% while the market at DraftKings implies about 43%. The 14-point gap is the pick. Her recent log: 4, 5, 1, 5, 2 assists over her last five games (3.4 average); the under of 3.5 would have cashed in 2 of them.WNBA prop engine: model 57% under 3.5 vs market 43% (edge +14.2)
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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 17 | 18 | 11 | 13 | 59 |
| ATL | 22 | 23 | 31 | 27 | 103 |
ESPN live win probability: ATL 100%
Play-by-play
- [4- 0.0] End of Game
- [4- 0.0] End of the 4th Quarter
- [4- 21.7] Madina Okot defensive rebound
- [4- 24.2] Raegan Beers misses layup
- [4- 44.3] Shatori Walker-Kimbrough bad passturnover (Raegan Beers steals)
- [4- 57.4] Raegan Beers out of bounds lost ball turnover
- [4- 1:13] Ashlon Jackson defensive rebound
- [4- 1:17] Shatori Walker-Kimbrough misses running layup
- [4- 1:22] Hailey Van Lith bad passturnover (Madina Okot steals)
- [4- 1:32] Hailey Van Lith enters the game for Saniya Rivers
- [4- 1:32] Indya Nivar personal foul
- [4- 1:43] Shatori Walker-Kimbrough makes driving layup (Sika Kone assists)
Leaders
- Angel Reese (ATL): 30
- Rhyne Howard (ATL): 8
- Angel Reese (ATL): 10
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa (CON): 13
- Charlisse Leger-Walker (CON): 3
- Saniya Rivers (CON): 9
Game-day injuries
- Brionna Jones (ATL) - Out
- Rayah Marshall (CON) - Out
- Diamond Miller (CON) - Out
- Leila Lacan (CON) - Out
- Brittney Griner (CON) - Out
- Kennedy Burke (CON) - Out
Market (latest pregame line)
Spread (ATL)
-17.5
Total
169
Moneyline
- CON
- 10.50
- ATL
- 1.05
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (13 snapshots)
- Moneyline (home): opened 1.08, now 1.05
- Moneyline (home): opened 1.08, now 1.04