AGATHANo gut feelings

Paul vs Moutet Prediction

Friday, Oct 23, 2026, Time TBA, Quarterfinal

Agatha Research Desk

PREDICTION

AGATHA'S PICKPRED1U

Paul to Win

71%WIN CHANCE

PREDICTED SETS

PaulPaul
2-0
MoutetMoutet

Predicted 2-0

Win chance can move until the seal

SEALS ATSEALS-
BEST ODDSBEST-500William HillBET

Where to bet it

Paul to win: best odds

MATCHbest price first - 2 books

  1. William Hill-500-500
  2. DraftKings-556-556

Match at William Hill: opened -500, now -500

Who will win Paul vs Moutet?

Tommy Paul. Agatha gives Paul a 71% chance to win and predicts a 2-0 win in sets. It is Agatha's prediction for this match, sealed and graded like every pick.

Why Agatha picks Paul

Tommy Paul won both meetings since Jul 31, 2024 in our records, the latest 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 in Round 1 of the Delray Beach Open on Feb 17, 2026. Paul beat Benjamin Bonzi 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 in Round 2 of the Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes on Oct 21. Over their last ten matches, Paul went 7-3 and Corentin Moutet went 4-6. Agatha predicts straight sets and gives Paul about a 7-in-10 chance to win. The risk: Moutet beat Felix Balshaw 6-4, 6-4 in Round 2 of the Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes on Oct 21.

Paul vs Moutet recent form

Paul: last 5 matches

Last 5: 4-1

  1. Oct 21Benjamin BonziW6-4, 6-7(4), 6-3
  2. Oct 16Daniil MedvedevL3-6, 6-1, 3-6
  3. Oct 14Zizou BergsW7-6(5), 6-4
  4. Oct 12Valentin VacherotW6-4, 6-2
  5. Oct 10Adolfo Daniel VallejoW6-2, 6-2

Moutet: last 5 matches

Last 5: 3-2

  1. Oct 21Felix BalshawW6-4, 6-4
  2. Oct 20Ugo HumbertW6-2, 6-7(5), 7-6(4)
  3. Sep 1Dane SweenyL6-7(4), 4-6, 0-3 ret.
  4. Aug 5Rafael JodarL6-4, 1-6, 3-6
  5. Aug 3Marton FucsovicsW6-1, 6-2

Paul vs Moutet head-to-head

Since Jul 31, 2024: Paul 2, Moutet 0

  1. Feb 17, 2026Paul 4-6, 6-3, 6-4Delray Beach Open, Round 1
  2. Jul 31, 2024Paul 7-6(5), 6-3Olympics, Round 3

Paul vs Moutet player stats

  • Tommy Paul

    ATP ranking
    No. 152,575 pts
    2026 record
    42-191 title
    Titles
    511 finals

Market (latest pregame line)

Moneyline

Tommy Paul
-455
Corentin Moutet
+320

Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (1 snapshot)

  • Moneyline (Corentin Moutet) at William Hill: opened +350, now +350