AGATHANo gut feelings

Simakin vs Pavlovic Prediction

Saturday, Oct 17, 2026, 5:00 AM ET

Agatha Research Desk

PREDICTION

AGATHA'S PICKPRED1UDOG

Pavlovic to Win

53%WIN CHANCE

PREDICTED SETS

SimakinSimakin
0-2
PavlovicPavlovic

Predicted 0-2

Win chance can move until the seal

SEALS ATSEALS3:00 AM ET
BEST ODDSBEST+176FanDuelBET

Where to bet it

Pavlovic to win: best odds

MATCHbest price first - 3 books

  1. FanDuel+176+176
  2. bet365+162+162
  3. BetVictor+160+160

Match at bet365: opened +162, now +162

Who will win Simakin vs Pavlovic?

Luka Pavlovic. Agatha gives Pavlovic a 53% chance to win and predicts a 2-0 win in sets. It is Agatha's prediction for this match, sealed and graded like every pick.

Why Agatha picks Pavlovic

Simakin's latest result went against him, a loss to Camilo Ugo Carabelli 2-6, 6-2, 7-5 in Round 1 of the Rolex Shanghai Masters on Oct 8. Luka Pavlovic beat Juan Pablo Varillas 6-3, 6-7, 7-5 in the first qualifying round of the US Open on Aug 24, and this match is the first qualifying round of the Almaty Open on a hard court. Agatha has Pavlovic winning, slightly better than even, and predicts straight sets. The risk is Simakin won their last meeting in our records 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 in the Rolex Shanghai Masters on Oct 5.

Simakin vs Pavlovic recent form

Simakin: last 5 matches

Last 5: 2-3

  1. Oct 8Camilo Ugo CarabelliL6-2, 2-6, 5-7
  2. Oct 6Te RigeleW6-3, 6-2
  3. Oct 5Luka PavlovicW4-6, 6-4, 6-1
  4. May 18Liam DraxlL4-6, 7-6(6), 2-6
  5. Oct 11, 2025Ugo BlanchetL3-6, 7-6(8), 6-7(5)

Pavlovic: last 5 matches

Last 5: 1-4

  1. Oct 5Ilia SimakinL6-4, 4-6, 1-6
  2. Sep 22Alexandre MullerL4-6, 7-6(6), 3-6
  3. Aug 26Jacob FearnleyL4-6, 7-6(4), 4-6
  4. Aug 24Juan Pablo VarillasW6-3, 6-7(3), 7-5
  5. Jun 24Jaime FariaL4-6, 4-6

Simakin vs Pavlovic head-to-head

Since Oct 5, 2026: Simakin 1, Pavlovic 0

  1. Oct 5, 2026Simakin 4-6, 6-4, 6-1Rolex Shanghai Masters, Qualifying 1st Round

Simakin vs Pavlovic player stats

Market (latest pregame line)

Moneyline

Ilia Simakin
-227
Luka Pavlovic
+177

Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (1 snapshot)

  • Moneyline (Luka Pavlovic) at bet365: opened +162, now +162