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Lightning vs Islanders Prediction

Saturday, Oct 10, 2026, 7:30 PM ET, UBS Arena, Elmont

Agatha Research Desk, Updated

AGATHA'S PICKTampa Bay LightningAWAYTampa BayLightning

FINAL

0530

New York IslandersHOMENew YorkIslanders
53%WIN CHANCELightning to WinWON#733 SEALED

Win chance at the seal 53%

Agatha's pick: Lightning to WinTHE VERDICT

Final score: Lightning 5, Islanders 3

SEALED ODDS
-167BetRivers
CLOSING ODDS
-175BetRivers, at the start
STAKE
1 unitflat, every pick
RESULT
WON +0.60uat the sealed price
GRADED
10:10 PM ETreceipt #733

Game Center

Team123T
TBL2125
NYI0303

Play-by-play

  • [3- 20:00] Game End
  • [3- 20:00] End of 3rd Period
  • [3- 19:13] Giveaway by Scott Sabourin
  • [3- 19:00] Logan Stanley shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  • [3- 18:59] Erik Cernak hit Matias Maccelli
  • [3- 18:51] Matias Maccelli shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  • [3- 18:37] Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Conor Geekie
  • [3- 18:37] Brandon Hagel Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (1), Nikita Kucherov (7)
  • [3- 18:16] Bo Horvat faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
  • [3- 18:16] Brandon Hagel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Crozier (2), Ryan McDonagh (1)
  • [3- 17:37] Ryan McDonagh Snap Shot Wide Right
  • [3- 17:35] Zemgus Girgensons Backhand saved by Ilya Sorokin

Leaders

  • Tony DeAngelo (NYI): 1
  • Ondrej Palat (NYI): 2
  • Tony DeAngelo (NYI): 2
  • Brandon Hagel (TB): 3
  • Maxwell Crozier (TB): 2
  • Brandon Hagel (TB): 4

Game-day injuries

  • Alexander Romanov (NYI) - Out
  • Mathew Barzal (NYI) - Injured Reserve
  • Emil Lilleberg (TB) - Out
  • Yanni Gourde (TB) - Injured Reserve
TBL

Tale of the tape

NYI

Lightning vs Islanders recent form

TBL 3-2 Lightning: last 5 games

  1. W3-2MIN Oct 8 Minnesota Wild, 3-2
  2. W4-1PHI Oct 5 Philadelphia Flyers, 4-1
  3. W3-1WSH Oct 3 Washington Capitals, 3-1
  4. L1-5NYR Oct 1 New York Rangers, 1-5
  5. L1-2MTL May 3 Montreal Canadiens, 1-2

NYI 2-3 Islanders: last 5 games

  1. W4-1CHI Oct 8 Chicago Blackhawks, 4-1
  2. L2-5NYR Oct 6 New York Rangers, 2-5
  3. W6-0NJD Oct 3 New Jersey Devils, 6-0
  4. L1-2TOR Sep 30 Toronto Maple Leafs, 1-2
  5. L1-2CAR Apr 14 Carolina Hurricanes, 1-2
Goals scored, last 5TBL 12NYI 14
Goals allowed, last 5fewer is betterTBL 11NYI 10

Lightning vs Islanders head-to-head

Since Feb 24, 2024: Lightning 4, Islanders 4

  1. Dec 13, 2025Islanders 3-2
  2. Dec 6, 2025Islanders 2-0
  3. Dec 2, 2025Islanders 2-1
  4. Apr 1, 2025Lightning 4-1
  5. Mar 29, 2025Lightning 5-3
  6. Feb 1, 2025Islanders 3-2
  7. Mar 30, 2024Lightning 4-1
  8. Feb 24, 2024Lightning 4-2

Lightning vs Islanders line movement

MONEYLINE Lightning to win at BetRivers

Market (latest pregame line)

Spread (NYI)

+1.5

Total

5.5

Moneyline

TBL
-175
NYI
+145

Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (16 snapshots)

  • Moneyline (NYI) at FanDuel: opened +136, now +146
  • Spread (NYI) at FanDuel: opened +1.5, now +1.5
  • Total at FanDuel: opened 5.5, now 5.5

Agatha's pick for Lightning vs Islanders

The Lightning. Agatha gave Tampa Bay a 53% chance to win at UBS Arena, Elmont. It was Agatha's prediction for this game, sealed and graded like every pick.

TV: ESPN+

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