Atlanta Dream vs New York Liberty Prediction
Agatha's pick
52%LOSTEDGEDOG1ULOSTSEALED ODDS2.07
Agatha's WNBA model makes the New York Liberty 52% to win this game; the best price at Unibet implies only about 48%. That 4-point gap is why this is a pick, from the model validated across 826 blind games before it reached the board. Form check: the Liberty are 7-3 over their last ten, the Dream 8-2.Sealed Pick #1061 @ Sep 21, 7:45 PM ETFingerprintbaa43582a87291fd6b32c0ee4cc493ba8f8bfe288565022896ebfc9bb64c0f91Transactiona2bea679bf2f5999fbcb78249ee87e4b9b415b7fcd20486c1a87371ac5849abcOpen keyb284c1be45f703b8c88dc29c67c6aab243a712ab52d687f17e67ad535ba4b857- 52%LOSTEDGE1ULOSTSEALED ODDS2.00
Agatha's WNBA model prices Allisha Gray Over 2.5 assists at 52%, 10 points past the 42% implied at FanDuel, on a prop her blind three-season trial validated. Her recent log: 3, 5, 2, 3, 6 assists over her last five games (3.8 average); the over of 2.5 would have cashed in 4 of them.WNBA prop engine: model 52% over 2.5 vs market 42% (edge +9.6)Sealed Pick #1062 @ Sep 21, 7:45 PM ETFingerprint087642cfadecd7a517ee3d49e1fdf5a1446630dcf9180b3ddd8f7ce3f2c4ba9eTransactione1fab1ccb97d5c3aded92d880c0f7142fab67c1a19919f22292ee841a01de351Open keyb284c1be45f703b8c88dc29c67c6aab243a712ab52d687f17e67ad535ba4b857 - 50%WONEDGE1UWONSEALED ODDS2.42The books hung 0.5 threes on Breanna Stewart; Agatha prices the under at 50% against roughly 40% implied at FanDuel, a 10-point disagreement on a market her blind trial validated. Her recent log: 0, 2, 0, 0, 0 threes over her last five games (0.4 average); the under of 0.5 would have cashed in 4 of them.WNBA prop engine: model 50% under 0.5 vs market 40% (edge +9.6)Sealed Pick #1063 @ Sep 21, 7:45 PM ETFingerprint3460d31abff66962f1b07db1b62de3aad70aaaa1377e9bf716825b850f36a11cTransaction7af3678afa485546d0124e258578ff7619f66c4345bbed959ce6ccf01fd45ec3Open keyb284c1be45f703b8c88dc29c67c6aab243a712ab52d687f17e67ad535ba4b857
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Board refreshes every 2 minutesGame Center
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 23 | 18 | 32 | 22 | 95 |
| NY | 24 | 14 | 24 | 22 | 84 |
ESPN live win probability: NY 0%
Play-by-play
- [4- 0.0] End of Game
- [4- 0.0] End of the 4th Quarter
- [4- 17.0] shot clock turnover
- [4- 40.0] Rhyne Howard defensive rebound
- [4- 42.8] Breanna Stewart misses driving floating jump shot
- [4- 50.1] Jordin Canada makes free throw 2 of 2
- [4- 50.1] Jordin Canada makes free throw 1 of 2
- [4- 50.1] Rebekah Gardner enters the game for Pauline Astier
- [4- 50.1] Pauline Astier personal take foul
- [4- 54.3] Allisha Gray defensive rebound
- [4- 56.7] Jonquel Jones misses 26-foot three point jumper
- [4- 58.8] Pauline Astier offensive rebound
Leaders
- Breanna Stewart (NY): 27
- Leonie Fiebich (NY): 6
- Breanna Stewart (NY): 14
- Jordin Canada (ATL): 19
- Jordin Canada (ATL): 9
- Angel Reese (ATL): 10
Game-day injuries
- Satou Sabally (NY) - Out
- Elizabeth Balogun (NY) - Out
- Brionna Jones (ATL) - Out
Market (latest pregame line)
Spread (NY)
+0.5
Total
177.5
Moneyline
- ATL
- 1.83
- NY
- 1.97
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (10 snapshots)
- Moneyline (home): opened 2.02, now 2.02
- Moneyline (home): opened 2.00, now 2.05