AgathaRecord
AGATHANo gut feelings
JOIN

Alcaraz vs Medvedev Prediction

Saturday, Oct 31, 2026, 10:00 AM ET, Semifinal

Agatha Research Desk

PREDICTION

AGATHA'S PICKPRED1U

Alcaraz to Win

72%WIN CHANCE

PREDICTED SETS

AlcarazAlcaraz
2-0
MedvedevMedvedev

Predicted 2-0

Win chance can move until the seal

SEALS ATSEALS9:45 AM ET
BEST ODDSBEST-250William HillBET

Where to bet it

Alcaraz to win: best odds

MATCHbest price first - best 6 of 21 books

  1. William Hill-250-250
  2. 888sport-250-250
  3. 1xBet-251-251
  4. Winamax-256-256
  5. DraftKings-260-260
  6. Bovada-260-260

Match at William Hill: opened -250, now -250

Market (latest pregame line)

Moneyline

Carlos Alcaraz
-280
Daniil Medvedev
+215

Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (1 snapshot)

  • Moneyline (Daniil Medvedev) at FanDuel: opened +205, now +205

Who will win Alcaraz vs Medvedev?

Carlos Alcaraz. Agatha gives Alcaraz a 72% chance to win and predicts a 2-0 win in sets. It is Agatha's prediction for this match, sealed and graded like every pick.

Why Agatha picks Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz has won three matches in a row, all at the Erste Bank Open. He beat Tommy Paul 6-4, 7-6 in the quarterfinal of the Erste Bank Open on Oct 30, and he is 9-1 over the last 10 matches. Alcaraz is also 35-5 on the main tour this year. Agatha predicts straight sets and gives Alcaraz about a 7-in-10 chance to win. The risk is Medvedev has won seven matches in a row, the last three at the Erste Bank Open.

Alcaraz vs Medvedev recent form

Alcaraz: last 5 matches

Last 5: 4-1

  1. Oct 30Tommy PaulW6-4, 7-6(2)
  2. Oct 29Nikoloz BasilashviliW6-1, 7-6(11)
  3. Oct 27Karen KhachanovW6-4, 7-6(5)
  4. Oct 12Zizou BergsL5-7, 6-7(4)
  5. Oct 10Juan Manuel CerundoloW6-3, 6-3

Medvedev: last 5 matches

Last 5: 5-0

  1. Oct 30Adrian MannarinoW6-2, 6-3
  2. Oct 29Cameron NorrieW4-6, 6-3, 7-6(1)
  3. Oct 28Daniel MeridaW7-6(5), 6-1
  4. Oct 25Nikoloz BasilashviliW6-7(6), 6-1, 6-3
  5. Oct 24Alexander BublikW6-3 ret.

Alcaraz vs Medvedev head-to-head

Since Mar 19, 2023: Alcaraz 6, Medvedev 2

  1. Mar 14, 2026Medvedev 6-3, 7-6(3)BNP Paribas Open, Semifinal
  2. Oct 1, 2024Alcaraz 7-5, 6-3China Open, Semifinal
  3. Jul 12, 2024Alcaraz 6-7(1), 6-3, 6-4, 6-4Wimbledon, Semifinal
  4. Mar 17, 2024Alcaraz 7-6(5), 6-1BNP Paribas Open, Final
  5. Nov 17, 2023Alcaraz 6-4, 6-4Nitto ATP Finals, Group Stage
  6. Sep 8, 2023Medvedev 7-6(3), 6-1, 3-6, 6-3US Open, Semifinal
  7. Jul 14, 2023Alcaraz 6-3, 6-3, 6-3Wimbledon, Semifinal
  8. Mar 19, 2023Alcaraz 6-3, 6-2BNP Paribas Open, Final

Alcaraz vs Medvedev player stats

  • Carlos Alcaraz

    ATP ranking
    No. 35,610 pts
    2026 record
    35-53 titles
    Titles
    2735 finals

  • Daniil Medvedev

    ATP ranking
    No. 53,860 pts
    2026 record
    52-184 titles
    Titles
    2545 finals