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Alcaraz vs Paul Prediction

Friday, Oct 30, 2026, 10:00 AM ET, Quarterfinal

Agatha Research Desk

PREDICTION

AGATHA'S PICKPRED1U

Alcaraz to Win

77%WIN CHANCE

PREDICTED SETS

AlcarazAlcaraz
2-0
PaulPaul

Predicted 2-0

Win chance can move until the seal

SEALS ATSEALS8:15 AM ET
BEST ODDSBEST-4721xBetBET

Where to bet it

Alcaraz to win: best odds

MATCHbest price first - best 6 of 13 books

  1. 1xBet-472-472
  2. Fanatics-475-475
  3. Betsson-476-476
  4. Winamax-476-476
  5. FanDuel-500-500
  6. Betfair-500-500

Market (latest pregame line)

Moneyline

Carlos Alcaraz
-515
Tommy Paul
+375

Who will win Alcaraz vs Paul?

Carlos Alcaraz. Agatha gives Alcaraz a 77% chance to win and predicts a 2-0 win in sets. It is Agatha's prediction for this match, sealed and graded like every pick.

Why Agatha picks Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz beat Tommy Paul 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 in their latest meeting, in Round 4 of the US Open on Sep 6, 2026, on the main tour. Alcaraz beat Nikoloz Basilashvili 6-1, 7-6 in Round 2 of the Erste Bank Open on Oct 29 and is 29-4 on hard courts this year. Paul lost to Taylor Fritz 6-3, 7-5 in the semifinal of the Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes on Oct 24. Agatha predicts straight sets and gives Alcaraz about a 3-in-4 chance to win. The risk is Paul has won two matches in a row at the Erste Bank Open, beating Luciano Darderi 6-1, 6-1.

Alcaraz vs Paul recent form

Alcaraz: last 5 matches

Last 5: 4-1

  1. Oct 29Nikoloz BasilashviliW6-1, 7-6(11)
  2. Oct 27Karen KhachanovW6-4, 7-6(5)
  3. Oct 12Zizou BergsL5-7, 6-7(4)
  4. Oct 10Juan Manuel CerundoloW6-3, 6-3
  5. Oct 6Jiri LeheckaW7-6(4), 6-4

Paul: last 5 matches

Last 5: 4-1

  1. Oct 29Luciano DarderiW6-1, 6-1
  2. Oct 27Andrey RublevW7-5, 6-2
  3. Oct 24Taylor FritzL3-6, 5-7
  4. Oct 23Corentin MoutetW6-4, 3-6, 6-3
  5. Oct 21Benjamin BonziW6-4, 6-7(4), 6-3

Alcaraz vs Paul head-to-head

Since Mar 28, 2023: Alcaraz 7, Paul 1

  1. Sep 6, 2026Alcaraz 6-4, 6-3, 6-4US Open, Round 4
  2. Jan 24, 2026Alcaraz 7-6(6), 6-4, 7-5Australian Open, Round 4
  3. Jun 3, 2025Alcaraz 6-0, 6-1, 6-4Roland Garros, Quarterfinal
  4. Aug 1, 2024Alcaraz 6-3, 7-6(7)Olympics, Quarterfinal
  5. Jul 9, 2024Alcaraz 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2Wimbledon, Quarterfinal
  6. Aug 17, 2023Alcaraz 7-6(6), 6-7(0), 6-3Cincinnati Open, Round 3
  7. Aug 11, 2023Paul 6-3, 4-6, 6-3National Bank Open, Quarterfinal
  8. Mar 28, 2023Alcaraz 6-4, 6-4Miami Open, Round 4

Alcaraz vs Paul player stats

  • Carlos Alcaraz

    ATP ranking
    No. 35,610 pts
    2026 record
    34-53 titles
    Titles
    2735 finals

  • Tommy Paul

    ATP ranking
    No. 142,675 pts
    2026 record
    45-201 title
    Titles
    511 finals