Alcaraz vs Ruud Prediction
Saturday, Nov 7, 2026, 11:25 AM ET, Semifinal
Agatha Research Desk, Updated
AGATHA'S PICKPRED1UDOG
Alcaraz to WinWON
PREDICTED SCOREPREDICTED SETSMATCHUPLIVEDELAYEDFINALPOSTPONEDLIVE
Predicted 2-0
BetMGM-Final: Carlos Alcaraz def. Casper Ruud, 2-0 in sets
- SEALED ODDS
- -475BetMGM
- CLOSING ODDS
- -500BetMGM, at the start
- STAKE
- 1 unitflat, every pick
- RESULT
- WON +0.21uat the sealed price
- GRADED
- 12:55 PM ETreceipt #2830
The odds
Alcaraz to win: prices at the start
Match at BetMGM: opened -525, closed -500
Alcaraz vs Ruud line movement
Market (latest pregame line)
Moneyline
- Carlos Alcaraz
- -610
- Casper Ruud
- +440
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (11 snapshots)
- Moneyline (Casper Ruud) at FanDuel: opened +420, now +440
Agatha's pick for Alcaraz vs Ruud
Carlos Alcaraz. Agatha gave Alcaraz an 83% chance to win and predicted a 2-0 win in sets. It was Agatha's prediction for this match, sealed and graded like every pick.
Why Agatha picked Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz has won seven matches in a row, the last two at the Rolex Paris Masters. He is 9-1 over the last 10 matches, and he beat Taylor Fritz 6-7, 7-5, 6-3 in the quarterfinal of the Rolex Paris Masters on Nov 6. In their latest meeting, on Mar 11, 2026, Alcaraz won 6-1, 7-6 in Round 4 of the BNP Paribas Open on the main tour. Agatha predicts straight sets and gives Alcaraz about a 5-in-6 chance to win. The risk is Casper Ruud has won four matches in a row, all at the Rolex Paris Masters.
Alcaraz vs Ruud recent form
Alcaraz: last 5 matches
Last 4: 4-0
- Nov 6Taylor FritzW6-7(10), 7-5, 6-3
- Nov 5Matteo BerrettiniWW/O
- Nov 4Alex MichelsenW7-6(4), 6-3
- Nov 1Alex de MinaurW6-1, 6-4
- Oct 31Daniil MedvedevW6-4, 7-6(2)
Ruud: last 5 matches
Last 5: 4-1
- Nov 6Nuno BorgesW7-6(5), 6-4
- Nov 5Jan-Lennard StruffW6-3, 6-3
- Nov 3Rafael JodarW6-3, 6-4
- Nov 2Juan Manuel CerundoloW6-3, 6-2
- Oct 28Nuno BorgesL6-1, 3-6, 4-6
Alcaraz vs Ruud head-to-head
Since Apr 9, 2021: Alcaraz 6, Ruud 1
- Mar 11, 2026Alcaraz 6-1, 7-6(2)BNP Paribas Open, Round 4
- Sep 29, 2025Alcaraz 3-6, 6-3, 6-4Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships, Semifinal
- Nov 11, 2024Ruud 6-1, 7-5Nitto ATP Finals, Group Stage
- Oct 2, 2023Alcaraz 6-4, 6-2China Open, Quarterfinal
- Sep 11, 2022Alcaraz 6-4, 2-6, 7-6(1), 6-3US Open, Final
- Apr 3, 2022Alcaraz 7-5, 6-4Miami Open, Final
- Apr 9, 2021Alcaraz 6-2, 6-4Anytech365 Andalucia Open, Quarterfinal