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Alcaraz vs de Minaur Prediction

Sunday, Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET, Final

Agatha Research Desk

PREDICTION

AGATHA'S PICKPRED1U

Alcaraz to Win

76%WIN CHANCE

PREDICTED SETS

AlcarazAlcaraz
2-0
de Minaurde Minaur

Predicted 2-0

Win chance can move until the seal

SEALS ATSEALS5:15 AM ET
BEST ODDSBEST-435RollbitBET

Where to bet it

Alcaraz to win: best odds

MATCHbest price first - 1 book

  1. Rollbit-435-435

Market (latest pregame line)

Moneyline

Carlos Alcaraz
-450
Alex de Minaur
+325

Who will win Alcaraz vs de Minaur?

Carlos Alcaraz. Agatha gives Alcaraz a 76% chance to win and predicts a 2-0 win in sets. It is Agatha's prediction for this match, sealed and graded like every pick.

Why Agatha picks Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz won all four meetings since Feb 9, 2025 on the main tour, the latest 7-5, 6-2, 6-1 in the quarterfinal of the Australian Open on Jan 27, 2026. He beat Daniil Medvedev 6-4, 7-6 in the semifinal of the Erste Bank Open on Oct 31 and has won four matches in a row, all at the Erste Bank Open. Agatha gives Alcaraz about a 3-in-4 chance to win and predicts straight sets. The risk is Alex de Minaur has won four matches in a row at the Erste Bank Open and beat Alexander Zverev in the semifinal.

Alcaraz vs de Minaur recent form

Alcaraz: last 5 matches

Last 5: 4-1

  1. Oct 31Daniil MedvedevW6-4, 7-6(2)
  2. Oct 30Tommy PaulW6-4, 7-6(2)
  3. Oct 29Nikoloz BasilashviliW6-1, 7-6(11)
  4. Oct 27Karen KhachanovW6-4, 7-6(5)
  5. Oct 12Zizou BergsL5-7, 6-7(4)

de Minaur: last 5 matches

Last 5: 4-1

  1. Oct 31Alexander ZverevW6-4, 1-6, 7-6(4)
  2. Oct 30Matteo BerrettiniW7-6(4), 6-2
  3. Oct 28Learner TienW6-4, 6-2
  4. Oct 26Tomas MachacW1-6, 6-4, 6-3
  5. Oct 15Alexander ZverevL4-6, 4-6

Alcaraz vs de Minaur head-to-head

Since Apr 24, 2022: Alcaraz 6, de Minaur 0

  1. Jan 27, 2026Alcaraz 7-5, 6-2, 6-1Australian Open, Quarterfinal
  2. Nov 9, 2025Alcaraz 7-6(5), 6-2Nitto ATP Finals, Group Stage
  3. Apr 18, 2025Alcaraz 7-5, 6-3Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell, Quarterfinal
  4. Feb 9, 2025Alcaraz 6-4, 3-6, 6-2ABN Amro Open, Final
  5. Jun 25, 2023Alcaraz 6-4, 6-4HSBC Championships, Final
  6. Apr 24, 2022Alcaraz 6-7(4), 7-6(4), 6-4Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell, Semifinal

Alcaraz vs de Minaur player stats

  • Carlos Alcaraz

    ATP ranking
    No. 35,610 pts
    2026 record
    36-53 titles
    Titles
    2735 finals

  • Alex de Minaur

    ATP ranking
    No. 103,280 pts
    2026 record
    41-191 title
    Titles
    1122 finals