Agatha's Top Picks

Matteo Berrettini meets a man going the wrong way. Tomas Martin Etcheverry has lost five matches in a row, the latest at the Almaty Open, where Mattia Bellucci beat him 7-6, 2-6, 6-4 in Round 1 on Oct 21. Berrettini beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1-6, 7-6, 6-4 in Round 1 of the Japan Open Tennis Championships on Oct 1. Agatha predicts straight sets and gives Berrettini close to a 6-in-10 chance to win. The risk is Berrettini's own slump: he has lost two matches in a row, the latest to Kyrian Jacquet 7-6, 7-5 on Oct 20.

Valentin Vacherot beat Arthur Fils 7-5, 4-6, 6-4 in the quarterfinal of the Japan Open Tennis Championships on Oct 4, and he is ranked No. 32 in the ATP rankings of 2026-10-15. Mariano Navone lost to Tallon Griekspoor 7-6, 7-5 in Round 2 of the BNP Paribas Fortis European Open on Oct 21 and sits at No. 45. Over the last ten matches, Vacherot went 5-5 and Navone went 4-6. Agatha predicts straight sets and gives Vacherot about a 2-in-3 chance to win. The risk is Navone won their latest meeting on the main tour, 1-6, 6-3, 6-3 in the National Bank Open on Aug 5, 2026.

Alex de Minaur won their last meeting 3-6, 6-0, 6-3 in Round 2 of the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters on the main tour on Apr 9, 2025. He is ranked No. 8 in the ATP rankings of 2026-10-15, and he is 7-3 over the last 10 matches. Tomas Machac lost to Karen Khachanov 6-2, 4-6, 7-6 in Round 2 of the Almaty Open on Oct 22. Agatha gives de Minaur about a 7-in-10 chance to win and predicts straight sets. The risk is that de Minaur retired against Novak Djokovic in the final of the China Open on Oct 6.

Holger Rune has won both meetings since Jul 6, 2024 on the main tour, the latest 4-6, 6-2, 5-7, 7-5, 6-2 in Round 3 of Roland Garros on May 30, 2025. He beat Tomas Martin Etcheverry 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 in the quarterfinal of the Bybit Stockholm Open on Oct 17, 2025, and over their last ten matches he went 5-5 while Quentin Halys went 4-6. Agatha predicts straight sets and gives Rune close to a 6-in-10 chance to win. The risk is Rune has lost three matches in a row, the latest at the Rolex Shanghai Masters.

Ayla Aksu has won five matches in a row, all at the Samsun Open, and she closed that run by beating Lucrezia Stefanini 7-5, 2-6, 6-2 in the final of the Samsun Open on Oct 11. Zaar has lost two matches in a row, the latest to Matilde Jorge 6-1, 7-5 in Round 1 of the Lisboa Belem Open on Oct 13. Agatha predicts straight sets and gives Aksu about a 3-in-4 chance to win. The risk is Zaar's qualifying wins at the Delta Motors Tolentino Open, including a 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 win over Enola Chiesa on Sep 21.

Maria Camila Torres Murcia has lost three matches in a row, the latest a 6-4, 6-1 defeat by Nao Hibino in Round 1 of the Kia Open on Sep 7. Maria Fernanda Navarro Oliva beat Katherine Marifer Torres Lopez 6-3, 6-2 in the first qualifying round of the Queretaro Open on Oct 19, 2025, and her career-high ranking is No. 534, while Murcia's is No. 807. Agatha predicts straight sets and gives Oliva about a 2-in-3 chance to win. The risk is Oliva's last match, a 6-2, 6-3 loss to Miriam Bulgaru in Round 1 of the Queretaro Open on Oct 21, 2025.

Learner Tien owns the hard-court form: he is 19-12 on hard courts this year and Luca van Assche is 3-7. Tien beat Zachary Svajda 7-5, 7-5 in Round 2 of the Rolex Shanghai Masters on Oct 10, and at the same tournament van Assche lost to Bu Yunchaokete 7-6, 6-3 in Round 1 on Oct 8. Tien is ranked No. 18 and van Assche No. 48. Agatha predicts straight sets and gives Tien about a 3-in-4 chance to win. The risk is van Assche played on Oct 22 and Oct 23, while Tien last played on Oct 12, 14 days before this match.

The Hornets won four of the six meetings since Feb 3, 2025, including the latest, 129-112, on Feb 22, 2026. Brandon Miller averaged 20.2 points and 4.9 rebounds for the Hornets last season. The Hornets also beat the Miami Heat 115-110 at home on Oct 24. Agatha has the Hornets winning 119-110, about a 5-in-6 chance. The risk is Coby White is listed as Out (injury: leg) and the Hornets lost 128-81 to the Atlanta Hawks at home on Oct 23.

The Cavaliers have won four of the six meetings since Mar 8, 2024, including the latest, 146-134 on Jan 10, 2026. Donovan Mitchell averaged 27.9 points and 5.7 assists per game in 70 games last season, and Evan Mobley added 18.2 points and 9.0 rebounds. The Timberwolves are without Donte DiVincenzo, listed as Out with a leg injury. Agatha predicts a 114-112 Cavaliers win, a little better than a coin flip. The risk is the Timberwolves are 3-0 in three games this season, with Anthony Edwards averaging 28.8 points per game.

The Valkyries won the latest meeting, 67-62 on the road in a playoff game on Oct 24, 2026, and they beat the Dream 68-64 at home on Oct 17. They also won 87-77 at the Las Vegas Aces on Oct 9. Game 5 of the WNBA Finals is tied 2-2, and the game is at Chase Center, the Valkyries' home ground. Agatha has the Valkyries winning, a little better than a coin flip. The risk is the Dream beat the Valkyries 97-71 at home on Oct 21, and the Valkyries lost 79-65 to the Dream on Oct 19.

Agatha's WNBA model lands on Tiffany Hayes Under 1.5 threes, 75%. Hayes has gone 0, 1, 0, 1, 1 threes across her last five games, averaging 0.6. Season to date: 0.7 threes a game in 49 games, 17.7 minutes a night (24.0 over her last five). The Dream allow just 8.1 threes a game against the league's 8.6, which suits Hayes' under.

The Bucks have owned this series, winning four of the six meetings since Apr 27, 2025, including the latest 134-123 on Mar 15, 2026. They also allowed fewer points per game than the Pacers last season, 116.8 to 120.4, and the Pacers come in without Andrew Nembhard, listed out with a torso injury, plus Ivica Zubac and T.J. McConnell out with leg injuries. Agatha's prediction is a 120-114 Bucks win, about a 7-in-10 chance. The risk is the Bucks are 0-3 in three games this season while the Pacers won 136-109 at the Brooklyn Nets on Oct 25.

Gasser has kept the strikeouts down lately: 3, 3, 9, 2, 5 over his last five starts this season, 4.4 a start, and the under of 3.5 landed in 3 of them. The Rays hitters strike out 7.1 times a game, the 29th most of 30 teams. On Oct 14 against the Los Angeles Dodgers he struck out 3 in 5.0 innings. Agatha takes Gasser under 3.5 strikeouts, close to a 6-in-10 chance. The risk is Gasser went over 3.5 strikeouts in 2 of his last five starts, 9 against the St. Louis Cardinals on Sep 25.

Freddy Peralta struck out 3, 6, 3, 4, 6 over his last five starts, 4.4 a start, and the under of 4.5 landed in 3 of them. On Oct 19 against the Cleveland Guardians Peralta pitched 5.1 innings, allowed 1 earned run and struck out 3, and on Oct 5 against the New York Yankees he struck out 3 in 4.2 innings. Agatha's pick is Peralta under 4.5 strikeouts, slightly better than even. The risk is Peralta struck out 4.9 a start over 32 starts and went over 4.5 in 2 of his last five starts.

The Rockets are 3-0 this season, and they won five of the six meetings with the Hawks since Feb 10, 2024, including the latest, 121-114 on the road on Oct 24, 2026. The Rockets allowed fewer points per game than the Hawks last season, 110.0 to 116.0, and Kevin Durant averaged 26.0 points per game for the Rockets last season. Agatha has the Rockets winning 115-111, about a 2-in-3 chance. The risk is the Hawks won 128-81 at the Charlotte Hornets on Oct 23, and Marcus Smart is listed as Out for the Rockets.

Magda Linette opened the Japan Open with a win, beating Claire Liu 6-4, 6-3 in Round 1 on Oct 19. Zakharova has had a rough stretch, losing to Teodora Kostovic 6-3, 6-2 in the final qualifying round of the Guangzhou Open on Oct 25, and she is ranked No. 105 while Linette is No. 71. Linette has also won 3 titles on the tour. Agatha gives Linette about a 6-in-10 chance to win and predicts straight sets. The risk is Linette lost her most recent match, 6-4, 6-1 to Katerina Siniakova in Round 2 of the Japan Open on Oct 22.

Kenin has lost two matches in a row, both at the Japan Open, including a 6-3, 6-2 defeat to Kayla Day in Round 1 on Oct 20. Over their last ten matches Kaitlin Quevedo went 7-3 and Kenin went 3-7. Quevedo beat Nadia Podoroska 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 in the final of the SP Open on Sep 21. Agatha gives Quevedo about a 6-in-10 chance to win and predicts straight sets. The risk is Quevedo's own recent loss, 7-5, 6-3 to Lanlana Tararudee in Round 1 of the Japan Open on Oct 18.

Zeynep Sonmez comes in off a win while Sara Sorribes Tormo has lost two matches in a row, the latest at the Japan Open. Sonmez beat Maya Joint 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 in Round 1 of the Japan Open on Oct 20, and Sorribes Tormo fell to Maddison Inglis 7-5, 6-4 in the first qualifying round of the Japan Open on Oct 17. Sorribes Tormo is 2-5 on the main tour this year. Agatha predicts straight sets and gives Sonmez about a 6-in-10 chance to win. The risk is their last meeting, Sorribes Tormo's 6-1, 6-1 win in the final qualifying round of the China Open on Sep 23, 2024.